Western Canada to see much needed rain, return back to spring temperatures

Rainy days and cooler temperatures are set to move into parts of British Columbia and Alberta, leaving forecasters hopeful that regions impacted by wildfires will get some much needed relief. Parts of both provinces could also see thunderstorm activity to start the weekend.

Signs of relief ahead when it comes to the weather pattern and current wildfire situation across Western Canada. While there are many factors that dictate a heightened wildfire season, the weather has a major impact on wildfire behaviour and trends in how the wildfire season will unfold. Weather also influences where smoke impacts spread in direction and distance.

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Three meteorological factors that will affect wildfire trends and behaviour are precipitation, temperature, and wind. When there's a lack of precipitation, like we’ve seen so far this year, trees and ground cover are going to be a lot drier and therefore be able to burn much easier. Pair that with warm temperatures that can increase the risk of lightning, be it dry lightning or thunderstorms, and more people having bonfires outdoors, and you have a great recipe for a wildfire. When winds pick up, they fuel the fires with oxygen and allow them to spread at dangerous rates.

A 3-day thunderstorm threat may interrupt your long weekend plans with pop up thunderstorms across western Canada. Poor air quality and extreme fire danger persist, but near the end of the weekend, there are signs of relief ahead when it comes to the weather pattern and current wildfire situation.

The recent hot and dry weather has built up thunderstorm energy, especially in B.C.'s east and across Alberta. A weak, slow-moving disturbance stateside will provide enough of a thunderstorm trigger.

Beginning on Saturday a thunderstorm threat unfolds, isolated in nature but extending across these regions through the afternoon and evening thanks to daytime convection and a weak disturbance stateside. Severe storms could be possible, and most likely within the Okanagan, with heavy downpours or even hail.

Not everyone may see this activity, and if you don't, your forecast continues to be sunshine and above-average temperatures, climbing to the 30s once again across the Interior. However, more seasonal values hold on to the Sunshine Coast.

Going into Sunday, the threat of thunderstorms persist for much of the same regions as on Saturday. Calgary and Lethbridge could see more thunderstorm activity as the system shifts eastward. Once again the highest chance lies in BC's southeast, where heavy downpours could interrupt campers and adventurers for a second day in a row.

There is some uncertainty to the scope of precipitation on Monday, however, there are indications that the system may spread across the Prairies. At the same time, western Canada will begin to see a break in pattern to make way for some cooler temperatures.

Forecasters are remaining hopeful as they watch for what looks to be a temporary break to the extreme heat and dry weather across Western Canada for much of May, which has fueled the expansive wildfire situation across Alberta and parts of British Columbia. A trough over the Pacific will swing into the B.C. coast towards the end of the long weekend and into early next week.

This trough is looking to develop in an upper-level low, which will deliver significant precipitation to parts of the region along with a break from the mid-summer heat. While the trough doesn't look to be as pronounced as what models were hinting at just days ago, forecast consensus seems to be somewhat uniform in the confidence in at least a temporary break from the persistent ridge and summer weather.

While scattered thunderstorms are forecast throughout the long weekend for both provinces, a more defined system and upper-level low will deliver substantial rain to at least parts of B.C. and Alberta. Weather models show hopeful signs this wet weather will fall in at least some parts of the active fire regions. Rain is forecast to begin Monday for some and continue for a couple days at least, until mid-week.

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As we move through the weekend, rainfall amounts and locations will become more precise. Regardless, this will be a much needed rain event to dampen wildfires and their surrounding areas, as well as to help prevent more fires from breaking out.

Along with the rain relief, temperatures are forecast to break from the extended mid-summer heat the region has been basking under after a heat dome led to an early heat wave across parts of B.C. and record high temperatures in northern Alberta and parts of Canada's northern territories. Temperatures will remain above seasonal through the weekend before cooler, below seasonal weather temporarily moves in for early next week.

Visit The Weather Network's wildfire hub to keep up with the latest on the active start to wildfire season across Western Canada.

Much of B.C. and northern Alberta will see temperatures fall 10+ degrees Monday with mid- to upper-teens forecast for a few days. This will aid in the wildfire management at least for a little while. Temperatures look like they will slightly rebound by late next week, in time for it to be an actual summer month.

Keep checking back to The Weather Network for more forecast details and information across Western Canada.